Am I placing any bets on week 1 of the regular season? No. However, I do have some thoughts that I would like to share 4 months before we sit on our couches for 7 hours of commercial free football with Scott Hanson. Obviously, this is subject to change as more news comes out in regard to how teams look in camp and maybe some potential matchup advantages come to light that I had not previously considered.
Panthers and Patriots are underdogs in every game
From Mike Floria this morning, the Patriots and Panthers are underdogs in every game. Obviously as the season plays out this could change but this is something I talked about in my futures video I posted last week.
The Patriots are my favorite win total to go under 5.5. This is the NFL, and they are going to win games that they shouldn’t. Just ask the Buffalo Bills about their first games against New England and the Jets last season. I don’t think they are going 0-17. I had texted some of my buddies two weeks ago when I was fine tuning my power ratings post-draft and said I had them as dogs in every game and maybe they would be favored against the Seahawks and Chargers since those are middle of the pack teams going to Foxborough. This is not a surprise to me, and I am glad the market turned out to agree with me. When you do your own power ratings and start to form an opinion on these teams there is some doubt that creeps in and gets you thinking “am I too high or low on this team?” This was nice reassurance that my doubt of Bob Kraft’s squad isn’t unfounded. If you can still find 5.5 out there, I suggest going under.
Cowboys-Browns
I have the Browns favored by 2 in this game. The market is split right now as at some books you can find them favored by 1 or 1.5 point dogs. These aren’t around key numbers so there is no point in betting it now, but I consider this a rather large edge here.
The Browns are a team that I like backing at home. This was the number 1 defense in EPA/play, but their home/road splits were extreme. As you can see below this team was the 2000 Ravens at home and the 2023 Eagles on the road. You don’t find drastic splits like this too often in the NFL
If you recall, this team was one of the most injured in the NFL last season but will be fully healthy (except maybe Nick Chubb) for opening day. I think it’s easy to forget because they have the “stink” (for lack of a better term) of being the Cleveland Browns, but this is a team that has a top 5 offensive and defensive line in the NFL. If you are elite in the trenches you are going to be able to beat any team in this league and make a deep playoff run. This creates some rather favorable advantages against Dallas. If you recall from a season ago, the Cowboys struggled mightily defend the run. From weeks 8-18 this defense was 30th in rushing success rate including notable lackluster performances against Buffalo and Green Bay. For the season this team actually ran it well being top 10 in EPA and success rate, but I think their line and running back worse is taking a step back. They lost their center Tyler Biadasz to Washington and had to replace Tyron Smith with rookie Tyler Guyton. Guyton could be a great pro one day but starting your career against Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith on the road is as tough of a week 1 as you can get for a young left tackle. The running back room leaves a ton to be desired. Tony Pollard was a fine player, but I don’t think a backfield of Ezekiel Elliot, Rico Dowdle, and Deuce Vaughn is an improvement. Outside of Jake Ferguson and Ceedee Lamb this offense lacks playmakers and playing against an elite defense on the road with a young offensive line could be a struggle. If I had to bet it today give me Cleveland on the ML to start 1-0.
Texans-Colts
The Colts are a team I’m very high on coming into the year. I think Shane Steichen is a top 5 play caller in the NFL. Rank ‘em however you want but Shannahan, McVay, Reid, Steichen, and McDaniel are in a class by themselves to me. Look at how Jalen Hurts performed in his first year as a starter before Steichen took over after an embarrassing loss in Las Vegas. Steichen turned him into an MVP level player. Last year he cleaned up the mess left by Frank Reich and had Gardener Minshew on the brink of the playoffs. Now in year two he gets Anthony Richardson who has as much potential as anyone in this league at quarterback. I believe in his ability with Steichen so much that I may add him at 30/1 to win MVP. This is one I could see getting bet up to 2.5/3 since the Texans are the sexiest team in the NFL after the way Stroud performed as a rookie and adding Stefon Diggs. This Colts offense has a very good offensive line, playmaking receivers, and an elite running back. If Richardson takes that next step this could be one of the best offenses in the NFL. They also added Laitu Latu which should immediately improve their pass rush. Their concern for me right now is in the secondary. Divisional games are the toughest in the NFL so if you give me the Colts as home dogs with their massive upside, I am almost certainly going to be on it. It’s also worth noting, with a full season of tape on Stroud we could see him struggle (relatively) early in his second year until he and the Texans adjust.
I will have my weekly best bets on YouTube and may use the newsletter to send out weekly betting nuggets, reactions, trends. If you guys want to see my power ratings (or what I make the spread of each game) on a weekly basis or anything else that you think is interesting, let me know in the comments.
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