The NFL season is finally here, and that means we can fire up my NFL betting model and see where the value lies each week in the betting market. Last year my model went 19-12 for a 17.1% ROI after I started to post at The Athletic in Week 11. It’s early in the season, so as with my college football betting model, I’ll be a little conservative to start the season and start ramping things up as we get more in-season data. After we got a little taste of preseason and made off some NFL future bets, the season is finally among us, and we can sit down for half the day on Sunday for the next four months.
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My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on, so there will be some games where you see a smaller edge but no bet; this is why. If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circ*mstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.Click herefor live odds. Worst line to bet means do not bet a worse spread/total than what is listed. For example, Under 46 (-110) means do not bet Under 46 (-115) or Under 45.5 (-110). If you have more questions about the worst line, ask in the comments or reach out to meon twitter.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 44.5 (-110)
The Ben Roethlisberger era is officially over in Pittsburgh as they move onto Mitch Trubisky (and eventually Kenny Pickett). I’m not saying this is going to be the case, but it’s entirely possible that the Steelers’ offense sees improvement with a fresh arm behind center and a quarterback who won’t be a statue in the pocket. The Steelers certainly have weapons all over the field. If the offensive line can hold up and give Trubisky time to throw against this Bengals defense, they can put up some points here.
Joe Burrow ended the 2021 season on fire as this Bengals offense kicked into full gear in the back half of the season, and there isn’t much reason to think they can’t keep it going this week. Not only is Burrow blossoming into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he also has receivers to make his life easier. Ja’Marr Chase is likely a top 10 wide receiver, if not higher, by the end of 2022 and behind him are Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. There should be no shortage of points in Cincinnati this season. Now, all that firepower going up against this Steelers back seven? Bad news for Pittsburgh. Despite having T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, my model projects the Steelers’ defense to be average, and it’s because of a poor linebacker group and secondary. Maybe Devin Bush and Minkah Fitzpatrick will play better in 2022, but I’m not willing to bet on it right now.
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Worst line to bet: OVER 45 -110
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Maybe the preseason discourse in New England was Bill Belichick being Bill Belichick, but the concerns around this offense are real. While the issues of who will be calling plays are certainly real, according to my model, the bigger problem is regarding Mac Jones. This New England offense struggled down the stretch last season as it scored more than 24 points just once, against the putrid Jaguars in Week 17. Maybe Mac Jones will make a leap in his second year, but with how things ended last year, there is concern about how this offense will fare in 2022.
The Dolphins made the big splash of the offseason by trading for Tyreek Hill and acquiring Terron Armstead at left tackle. New offensive-minded coach Mike McDaniel is now running things that should see an increase in efficiency compared to last season. The issue, though, is that I think the market has gone too far. Tua Tagovailoa will need to prove that he can play at a high level before I can get on board with Miami being an above-average offense.
Worst line to bet: UNDER 46 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 52.5 (-110)
This game comes down to the fact that I think both defensive lines should be able to get pressure on the opposing quarterbacks and slow down scoring. The Raiders’ offensive line might be the worst in the league, at the very least near the bottom, and the Chargers should have a fearsome pass rush led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Raiders overachieved last year, and even with the addition of Adams, possibly the best wide receiver in football, if you can’t keep Derek Carr upright, it will be a long day on offense.
One concern I have for this game is J.C. Jackson at cornerback for the Chargers. If Jackson can’t go, the defense certainly takes a hit. It’s probably worth waiting for the news there, but I’m comfortable making the play now with the advantage in the trenches.
Worst line to bet: UNDER 52.5 (-110)
Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419
